With the daily drumbeat of an oncoming recession, financial figures looking dreary, rate cuts and talks of all prices raising you’d think even love couldn’t beat this bear market. Back in 70BC Virgil said in his poems about love titled Eclogue X that, “Love Conquers All.” Whether consumers are struggling financially, being laid off or just have recession jitters figures recently released about consumer spending on Valentines Day in 2008 seem to look upbeat.
You can expect the typical things that are always traded on Valentine’s Day to be given as tokens of affection. Flowers, chocolate, greeting cards and jewelry always keeps the typical lover in check with the Joneses. When you combine all these items in addition to the offbeat tokens of affection you get a figure of about $17.02 billion dollars. The National Retail Federation did their yearly survey of consumers about their planned spending habits for Valentines Day and arrived at these numbers. Every year the numbers end up well on par and show American’s are good at predicting honestly what they will spend on Valentines day.
With survey results tabulated and the final numbers in from National Retail Federation, American’s are predicted to spend $122.98 on average per person. In 2006 predicted spending amounts rang in at $100.89 per person on the average. This is nearly a 21.9% increase in spending in only 2 years. 
If the potential recession is getting consumers down, Valentine’s Day seems to be getting them back in love with opening their pocketbooks. There is one hint of a predicted spending hit due to the recession and it lies with women and their spending. Women’s predicted spending declined in every category except jewelry this year according to some numbers produced over at Marketing Daily.
Men are taking up the slack however with increased spending as they usually do every year. Men are actually spending a total of $163 on Valentine’s Day with women only spending a mere $85. The numbers are quite different and makes you wonder if men are trying to make up where they have left off in the intangible side of their relationships. Besides trying to make up for lost opportunity and intimacy, it is widely apparent that marketing does cater towards male purchases for Valentine’s Day. With men and women still dumping a size-able amount of money into retailers balance sheets it’s interesting to look at the past and predicted trends in each market.
Flower figures that are staggering and shocking, show America’s love affair with roses always remaining consistent. In 2006, 189 million roses were grown and prepared for Valentine’s Day with an obvious 74% of those roses being purchased 
by none other than men, according to the Society of American Florists. It’s obvious that Valentine’s Day is becoming a serious holiday when you look at this year’s predicted number of 214 million roses expected to be sold. That’s an expected increase of around 13% in number of roses to be purchased. The U.S. consumer isn’t exactly showing their concern with increases in flower prices or the recession with the projected increase in buying numbers.
One economy is definitely feeling the recession pinch when it comes to flowers. Columbia is being pushed into a corner with high inflation in their own country and a weakening U.S. dollar. The weakening U.S. dollar has put a 14 percent decrease on the conversion to peso. With the U.S. consumer not interested in spending more money this year because of tight budgets and recession fears, Columbia is forced to eat the profit reductions in flowers. With two out of every three flowers sold in the U.S. being produced in Columbia and shipped in through Miami, it’s going to be a tough year for the Colombian plantations. You can read more about the Colombian flower crisis here.
Another big beneficiary to the spending dollars of Valentine’s Day is the confectionery industry with chocolate grabbing big numbers around the world. In the U.S. alone heart-shaped boxes of chocolate are expected to be sold at a volume of 36 million according to the NRF Survey.
Looking at Nielsen numbers you see a steady rate of sales in the chocolate business with $323 million in chocolate sales for 2008. Valentine’s Day of 2007 inspired consumers to spend $322.7 million on chocolate. At first glance this may look like everyone is still buying the same amount of chocolate, but any economist or savvy business person would bring up inflation. Besides inflation, companies like Hershey Company have raised their prices due to increased production costs. In Hershey’s instance they raised prices of their chocolate by 13 percent in January due to the raising price of milk. You can read more about Hershey’s predicament at this in depth article here.
With chocolate possibly seeing a drop in volume but a steady sales number, the rest of the candy industry is predicted to see a slight drop in sales this year from last year’s number of $414.6 million. This year will dip just a bit to around $414 million in total sales making the inflation revelers more likely correct that this part of the industry is seeing a decline overall for 2008.
While chocolate and flowers have consistently sold more during the Valentine’s Day flurry than any time of the year, there are other gifts that almost join the crowd. Based out of Kansas City, MO. you can watch Hallmark Greeting cards moving at a brisk pace to keep up with increased demand from greeting card sales. The NRF survey states that we can expect 190 million greeting cards being passed around to give a prick from cupid’s arrows. Hallmark executives have seen their greeting card industry expand beyond the two lovebirds due to the growing marketing push to include all the people you love. Profits in the greeting card industry are expected to see a nice rise due to the introduction of new animated cards and music blasting cards that put a more upper price point on cards ranging from $4.99 - $5.99 each.
Just getting a greeting card and some chocolate doesn’t cover the bases for most men with their purchases on Valentine’s Day. Sparkling jewelry and and glistening gold seems to seal the deal for that purchase that makes the female lover smile. For 2008 however, it will be a tough year for the jewelry industry with gold pushing historic prices of $920 an ounce around the heat of the moment. Some jewelers are trying to increase foot traffic by offering old jewelry exchange programs and credits to help with purchases of gold encrusted jewels.
With flowers, chocolate, cards and gold you still have that romantic night that goes with Valentine’s Day. Although publicly restauranteurs seem to be upbeat about dining reservations it’s expected this industry might not fare as well. Mother’s Day is still in the sights of the dining business if Valentine’s Day doesn’t push them in the red. Mother’s Day is an all out eating party, bringing in the most sales for restaurants with Valentine’s Day in usual 3rd place.
With lovers bucking the idea that a recession is on the way or here, you will see the typical gift exchanges and happy couples parading the romantic hot-spots this year. What seems to come out of all this romance is an interesting trend in pregnancy test sales that was revealed by Nielsen research. The sales of pregnancy tests and fertility test kits have been said to spike six weeks after Valentine’s Day marking the 3rd week in March as the number one time for these post-love detection products to fly off the shelves.
When hard times hit, it still seems to remain true to the economic observer, Virgil was right, “Love Conquers All.”
